GHG Forward Price Curve Report

For companies assessing the implications of a CO₂-constrained world, the future cost of emissions (or the value of reductions) is the billion-dollar question. Finding the right answer to this question is critical for companies trying to navigate developing trends toward emission-reduction mandates on the one hand and continued market uncertainty on the other hand

Reporting Best Estimates

TC+ES's Greenhouse Gas Market Forward Price Curve Report reflects the results of our Forward Price Curve Model ©, and is our best estimate of future prices for GHG credits. Unlike other models, our model does not rely upon specific mathematical formulas for predicting future prices. The GHG market is simply too new, too dependent on future policy decisions, and too uncertain in terms of key variables like U.S. participation and second commitment period mandates for such an approach to be appropriate. Instead, TC+ES's model tracks more than 50 variables that will help determine future credit prices, and we use our 15 years of GHG market and project experience to build our Reference Case price curve around our projected outcomes for these variables. The model incorporates insights from:

The results of current top-down and bottom-up modeling;

Quantitative insights from tools specially designed by TC+ES to estimate future supply and demand;

Experience with other environmental commodities; and

Lessons from the current GHG offset market.